Improvements in Tropical Cyclone Motion Prediction by Incorporating DMSP Wind Direction Estimates.
Abstract
The wind fields used to initialize a coarse grid tropical cyclone motion prediction model were re-analyzed to include wind direction estimates based on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) photographs. An average of 20 upper-level direction estimates based on cirrus streaks and 17 low-level directions were available for the 32 cases considered. A control experiment with an analytic representation of a typhoon embedded in a basic current was used to test the effects of data distribution in the objective analysis scheme. Improved forecast accuracy occurred only when the incorporation of the DMSP wind direction estimates produced significant improvements in the wind fields in the immediate vicinity of the storm or in areas into which the storm eventually tracked. The incorporation of direction estimates located on the periphery of typhoons failed to re-direct the initial storm motion.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA057288
Entities
People
- Thomas Paul Walters
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School