The Tradeoff Between Learning and Inflation in Shipbuilding,

Abstract

Learning leads to a decrease in program cost. Inflation leads to an increase in program cost. At a certain time, the benefits of learning and the penalty due to inflation will balance each other. This time is defined as the critical time. The critical time depends upon the number of ships to be built because this determines the possible gain in learning. The critical time depends also on the assumed inflation, upon the achievable learning rate and on the material/labor ratio of the first ship. Learning expectation can be influenced by planning and the material/labor ratio by a make- or buy-decision. Assumptions on future learning are as vague as assumptions on inflation. The paper shows that it is almost impossible to beat inflation. It shows that accelerated programs are preferable and that make-decisions supersede the value of buy decisions. The result is derived from an abstract treatment of the subject. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1978
Accession Number
ADA058648

Entities

People

  • Charles Todd
  • F. A. P. Frisch

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Case Studies
  • Contracts
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineers
  • Keel Laying
  • Labor
  • Learning
  • Lessons Learned
  • Materials
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Shipbuilding
  • Shipyards
  • Uncertainty

Fields of Study

  • Economics

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis