Improving Intuitive Judgments BY Subjective Sensitivity Analysis
Abstract
Previous studies have concluded that when making inferences, people tend to ignore various kinds of normatively important information (e.g., samples sizes, base rates). The basis for such conclusions has typically been the similarity of responses across groups presented with widely discrepant values of that information. The experiments reported here convert earlier, between- subject designs to within-subject formats. Each subject made several judgments as one kind of information varied across a range of possible values. When information regarding base rates and predictive validity was varied, roughly two-thirds of the subjects changed their judgments in directions dictated by normative considerations. There were no appreciable shifts in response to changes in sample size. Apparently, people know (or can figure out) sonewhat more than what they have been given credit for in the past. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA058998
Entities
People
- Baruch Fischhoff
- Paul Slovic
- Sarah Lichtenstein