Evaluation of Extended Period Forecasting Technique.
Abstract
This project was undertaken to establish a statistical correlation between solar activity and atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar activity data used were sunspot numbers and changes occurring in sunspot numbers over three- and five-day periods, and meteorological data included the frequency of ridges, troughs, and low-pressure systems in key locations off the east and west coasts of North America. Numerous combinations of input data demonstrated only subtle correlations; however, when one considers the smallness of the solar energy variations in relation to the magnitude of circulation responses, even a subtle relationship indicated too strong a probability of solar influence on weather circulation patterns to be ignored. Hence part of the research effort during the past year was directed toward discovering a physical mechanism to explain the types of circulation behavior observed. One such mechanism is possibly the stratospheric warming induced by increased intensity of ultraviolet radiation during solar active periods. A qualitative concept of how this warming and stratification of the atmosphere could assist the atmosphere in more effectively converting potential energy to kinetic energy was developed, and plans for a simple numerical model to quantify this concept are underway. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA059451
Entities
People
- Earl C. Kindle
Organizations
- Old Dominion University