Reconciling Incoherent Judgments (RIJ) - Toward Principles of Personal Rationality.
Abstract
Decision analysis involves constructing models which force logical coherence between a subject's judgments, e.g., between his choice of action and probabilities and utilities. However, it does not specify how he should reconcile any incoherent judgments. There are indefinitely many ways they can be adjusted to be coherent systems of judgment. The authors discuss two approaches for identifying one ideal set of reconciled judgments for a subject, given some or, in the limit, all potential incoherent readings. They both call for higher order judgments bearing on the precision of the subject's original readings. One is a straightforward extension of Bayesian updating with the readings serving as data to update a prior. The other involes minimizing adjustments, taking into account the stability of the readings as probabilistically measured. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA059639
Entities
People
- Dennis V. Lindley
- Rex V. Brown