Conceptual Design of a New Damage Assessment Capability
Abstract
A new damage assessment capability is described. Statistical sampling techniques permit an advance in the state of the art of damage assessment beyond deterministic estimates of the outcomes of nuclear attacks. Now, uncertainties due to objectives, planning factors, environmental conditions, target and weapons effects can be addressed. Means, variances, and full distributions can be obtained to describe such factors as wind variability, uncertain reliability, penetration probability, probability of destruction before launch, etc., uncertainty in height of burst, population protection factors, and so on. All or any of these may be accommodated in a single fun, since sampling over the uncertainty distributions, sampling over national wind patterns, sampling AGZs from other attack descriptions, and applying standard effects calculations to a set of population samples, is the basis of a modular calculation. With standard damage assessment systems, any attempt to cover such a range of variation would imply an explosive combinatorial growth in computation time.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA062366
Entities
People
- G. E. Pugh
- R. J. Galiano