Modified Twenty-Four Hour Extrapolation as a Forecast Technique for the Movement of Tropical Cyclones.

Abstract

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam (JTWC) uses several objective techniques for forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones. Twelve-hour extrapolation (XTRP) and the TYFN75 analog program are the most successful of these techniques. The input parameters for both techniques include the past 12-hr storm position. It is felt that a subjective 24-hr extrapolation technique (XT24) based on reconnaissance positions is more realistic: these data are real-time whereas the warning positions are extrapolated from the reconnaissance positions and a 24-hr period tends to smooth out erratic short-term movements in the storm track. An operational evaluation of XT24 was conducted during the 1975 typhoon season. These results and recommendations for future use are discussed. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA065896

Entities

People

  • Charles R. Sikora

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Caribbean Sea
  • Climatology
  • Cyclones
  • Delphi Method
  • Errors
  • Extrapolation
  • Fleet Weather Central
  • Meteorological Satellites
  • Platforms
  • Reconnaissance
  • Steering
  • Storms
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Windshield Wipers

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Systems Analysis and Design