Analysis of the Historical Relationship Between Current Navy RDT and E and Future Investment in Procurement

Abstract

This thesis attempts to analyze the historical relationship between the Navy's investment in current RDT/E and future investment in procurement. Using data from fiscal years 1962 through 1979 and single equation econometric forecasting techniques, linear models predicting procurement one to four years in advance based on current RDT/E are developed. From time-series data, with the models adjusted for serial correlation of the error terms, ex post forecasts and confidence interval estimations are used to evaluate the extent and usefulness of the predictive relationships discovered. Eight separate models are developed, and analysis of results indicates the existence of a predictive relationship. However, there are also indications that the basic relationship may have changed during the period under study. The relative inaccuracy of forecasting methods when earlier data are ignored makes the usefulness of these procedures to those who shape future navy budgets difficult to determine.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1978
Accession Number
ADA066522

Entities

People

  • Edward C. Long Iii

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Equations
  • Federal Budgets
  • Financial Management
  • Investments
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • Procurement
  • Radar
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting
  • Regression Analysis.