Inference of Probability of Kill of Air-to-Air Missiles in Various Attack Modes.
Abstract
This research was conducted with the objective of estimating discrete probabilities of successful employment of tactical air-to-air guided missiles in three modes of operation and to estimate confidence intervals about these probabilities of success which did not exceed .20 in length at the 80% level of confidence. A set of proxy data consisting of 34 missile launches was randomly generated to simulate the results of a test series. This set of proxy data was analyzed using Regression Analysis techniques, mathematical modeling of the results of the test series as probability density functions, and Bayesian techniques. Regression analysis techniques did not provide usable results in this application, but the failure may have been due to the nature of the data being analyzed. The events in the flight of a missile were modeled as Beta probability density functions which were statistically combined and inferences were drawn from the distribution representing the overall probability of success. To demonstrate the use of Bayesian techniques to determine a prior distribution from historical data, the basic data was assumed to have been replicated and was then reanalyzed. These analyses did not meet the stated objectives because the means could not be statistically separated at the 80% level of confidence. The lengths of the associated 80% confidence intervals exceeded the objective of less than or equal to .20 in length for all cases when the basic proxy data was analyzed and in one of the three cases when historical data was assumed. Depending on the availability of historical data and the suitability of the approach, a combination of mathematical modeling and Bayesian techniques may meet the stated objectives. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA069382
Entities
People
- Carl J. Vogel
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology