Estimating Errors in Student Enrollment Forecasting.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how longitudinal data can be used to determine variances, and hence confidence bounds, on student enrollment forecasts in addition to finding the forecasts themselves. The cases of known admission numbers and unknown admission numbers, but with an assumed Poisson distribution, are both considered. The model takes into account different admissions at fall and spring semesters, and also allows for differences in the continuation fractions for these different semesters. Normal approximations are used to calculate the probability that a total enrollment lies in a given interval. Numerical examples illustrate the results. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA070084
Entities
People
- Kneale T. Marshall
- Robert M. Oliver
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School