Design Study for the Development and Use of Model Output Statistics in Automated Aviation Weather Forecasting.
Abstract
The Air Weather Service is preparing for the WWMCCS era by developing a support concept whereby weather information inputs will be in terms of Weather Impact Indicators (WIIs) which specify the probability that all stages of a mission will have 'favorable' weather. This report presents the design of a system based on the proven Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach to provide, in real-time, acceptably skillful objective estimates of WII probabilities. The system is mission oriented allowing the user to specify the limiting values for the weather elements which impact his mission. If forecast equations for such a mission profile are not already available in the system, forecast equations will be developed, applied, and archived for future use. Acceptable accuracy of these forecasts is essential. A user will not be satisfied with probabilities which, through poor reliability, lead to unexpected losses or which, through poor resolution, furnish little discrimination over and above a simple application of climatology. The design analysis for a real-time MOS system for global application shows such a system to be feasible within the resources of a large-scale computing center such as that operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the Air Force Global Weather Central.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA072849
Entities
People
- Harry R. Glahn
- Karl F. Hebenstreit
Organizations
- Air Force Research Laboratory