Development and Evaluation of Cross-Impact Analysis as a Crisis Decision-Aid.

Abstract

This thesis reviews the decision-making dilemma caused by information uncertainty and ambiguity produced during crisis situations. Several cross-impact analysis techniques are reviewed and evaluate as possible crisis decision-aids. Cross-event analysis is selected and extended for demonstration in a hypothetical crisis situation involving South Asia. The selected techniques is operationalized and employed in a controlled environment to assess policy response options to the hypothetical crisis. The thesis then assesses the technique's conceptual limitations, and evaluates its utility as a potential crisis decision-aiding methodology. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1979
Accession Number
ADA073960

Entities

People

  • Ralph L. Schindler

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Asia
  • Cognition
  • Computer Programs
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Delphi Method
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • Information Overload
  • Information Processing
  • International Relations
  • Judgment
  • National Security
  • Public Policy
  • Security
  • South Asia
  • Uncertainty
  • United States

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.