Quantification of Explosion Probabilities for Navy Tidewater Scenarios
Abstract
This report presents results of an initial effort to establish a procedure for estimating the probability of occurrence of all possible yields of inadvertent explosions in the Navy tidewater hazard scenario. The procedure is intended for ultimate use in a risk-decision model that will aid the Navy in the management or risk at activities supporting the ammunition logistics system. The procedure involves first constructing an ordnance logistical sequence diagram that simulates the sequence of events composing each type of possible ordnance transaction. Each event in the diagram is an opportunity for a mishap that could lead to a detonation or fire. The probability of occurrence of possible mishaps in each event is derived from historical records of mishaps. The conditional probabilities of an explosion (given a mishap) and sympathic communication of an explosion to other stores of ordnance are based on scientific and historical data base. The mathematical approach allows for the use of Bayesian statistics when the data base is inadequate and keeps track of uncertainty in the predictions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA074504
Entities
People
- Jerold Haber
- Jon D. Collins