Probability Weather Forecasts: For the Army.
Abstract
The United States Army presently receives weather forecasts expressed in categorical terms. However, this forecast form limits the useful information that can be communicated to the decision maker. This study investigates the utility of replacing categorical forecasts with probability forecasts in order to enhance decision making by Army commanders. To this end, the advantages and limitations of probability forecasts are reviewed. The principal conclusion of this study is that Army commanders would benefit from receiving probability weather forecasts. Finally, several recommendations for smoothing the conversion are given and a briefing that a Staff Weather Officer can use as a basis for showing an Army commander the utility of probability forecasts is provided. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 08, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA076190
Entities
People
- Arthur C. Kyle
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College