Commercial Vessel Safety Risk Assessment Study. Volume II. Risk Assessment Methodology Survey.
Abstract
This volume documents the results of a survey of risk assessment methodologies, performed as part two of a three part marine risk assessment study for the U. S. Coast Guard. Part one, a survey of data systems pertinent to marine risk assessments is documented in Volume 1 (AD-A077 719). A set of exercises demonstrating the application of selected methodologies and data to evaluate the risks of hazardous chemical transport is discussed in Volume 3. For this portion of the study, 34 risk assessment studies were reviewed and 12 of these were selected for further analysis. These 12 represent a spectrum of methodologies for evaluating the various risk elements involved in hazardous material transport, including probability of an accident, probability of release of the hazardous material, physicochemical reactions of the released material with the water and/or air, and resulting damage to persons, property, and the environment. Methods of evaluating accident and spill probabilities include statistical analysis of historical data, analytic equations expressing the kinematics of accident scenarios, computer simulation of ship movements, generation of fault trees relating the various possible event sequences leading to accidents, and subjective probability evaluation based on person judgment. Consequence models reviewed include computer models of the movement of oil spills on water and the physicochemical reactions of spills of hazardous chemicals such as LNG, chlorine, ammonia, etc. and their effects on persons and property.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA077628
Entities
People
- A. H. Rausch
- J. T. Pizzo
- W. E. Faragher