Forecasting Naval Enlisted Occupational Retention Behavior Under Alternative Retirement Systems.
Abstract
The objective of this effort is to extend previously developed retirement analysis techniques to occupational groups of personnel. These methods could be used to assess the effects of a particular retirement system on the continuation behavior of one or more groups of enlisted ratings. The Navy enlisted force was divided into 15 groups of ratings characterized by relatively homogeneous occupations and retention behavior. A dynamic programming model was used to compute, for each occupational group, the present discounted value of remaining in the military as opposed to retiring or leaving for civilian employment prior to retirement. Civilian opportunities based on the occupational categories were identified separately for each group. By analyzing the relationship between the cost of leaving military service and retention rates, by pay grade and length of service (LOS), forecasting models involving the use of a logit function were developed for the 15 groups to yield retention rates given the economic incentives of any retirement policy. By combining the forecasted retention rates with the current continuation rates for those personnel continuing in service, occupational group LOS continuation rates can be predicted. The models described in this report represent the fourth step in the development of more advanced tools to assess the effects of proposed alternative retirement systems.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA078028
Entities
People
- Hans Mumm
- Mark D. Chipman