Towards a General Forecasting Model for Crisis Monitoring: Predicting Events in China as Test Case

Abstract

This report summarizes the development and testing of the CEWMFC interactive forecasting system for monitoring political crises and policy changes in China. The first chapter presents an overview of the project, discusses its objective and its major accomplishments and delineates the structure of the report. The second chapter discusses the philosophy and the design of the CEWMFC System, and describes the forecasting model and the modeling strategy the system employs. The third chapter delineates the structure and function of the CEWMFC system. The fourth chapter summarizes the results of sensitivity analysis and forecast reliability tests performed on the CEWMFC system, and defines the hypotheses and the indicators employed in data analyses. Appendix A then presents a technical description of the mathematical foundation of the CEWMFC system. Appendix B describes the coding procedure for constructing the Chinese crisis and policy indicators. Appendix C describes the statistical models used in the data analyses.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 15, 1979
Accession Number
ADA078936

Entities

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  • Richard P. Li

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  • Michigan State University

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