Japan's Defense Policy: Forecast and Implications.
Abstract
This thesis forecasts Japan's defense posture in the 1980's. The forecast is based on review of Japanese history and elements of national security including the East Asian security environment. Several key variables, including economic growth and rising nationalism, are analyzed for their effect on defense posture. The major conclusion is that Japan is unlikely to move to a significantly stronger defense posture in the 1980's; instead , Japan's most probable course is relatively minor improvements of existing defense forces within present overall defense capabilities. This means that the U. S. can expect to continue to shoulder the major responsibility for Japan's defense, while Japan makes a small but 'respectable' contribution, which eschews nuclear weapons. A review of analyses and conclusions suggests that both nations need to reconsider their interdependent defense policies in order to provide an improved climate for continued strong ties. In particular, Japan needs to find ways to make an increased common defense contribution, while the U. S. needs to rethink the '1-1/2 wars' policy and improve credibility.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 21, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA079695
Entities
People
- William Ray Lynch Iii