A Parametric Study of Probabilistic Fire Spread Effects
Abstract
One of the basic mechanisms governing the magnitude of fire damage in an urban area resulting from a nuclear attack is the fire spread between individual structures. This paper investigates the effects of various methodological assumptions, using the basic physical models of fire spread by radiation and firebrands contained in the IITRI model. As an introduction to probabilistic effects, various regimes of solutions to fire spread by radiation in individual tracts are obtained by simplifying the IITRI model. The spread of fire down rows of buildings and in rectangular grids when each structure has a constant probability of igniting adjacent structures, is followed through a Monte Carlo simulation. Changes in fire spread patterns, as the probabilities are changed, are illustrated. The effects of various complicating features, such as random initial ignitions and varying ignition probabilities for each structure, are studied individually. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which contains almost all of the physical features of fire spread in the IITRI model. The spread of fire by firebrands across firebreaks, and the effects of ignition probabilities on the rate of fire spread are illustrated through the use of this model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA081387
Entities
People
- Leo A. Schmidt Jr.
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses