Political and Military Intention Estimation: A Taxonometric Analysis
Abstract
Political and military intention estimation should and can be done, but little systematic research has been devoted to intention estimation methods. The problems preventing accurate estimates are psychological, organizational, and political. The cognitive, social, and organizational mechanisms underlying intention estimation are fairly well understood, but little has been done to reduce the identified weaknesses or to capitalize on the known strengths. Much less is known of the political aspects underlying successes and failures. Estimation weaknesses are diagnosed and the problems and prospects for prescriptions are outlined. Most importantly, every reform reduced old weaknesses but creates new weaknesses in the estimation process, as well as adding new strengths. Improving intention estimation requires applying the lessons learned from past successes as well as the lessons of past failures. Three episodes of successful intention estimation were analyzed and the common features noted. These strengths were compared with the weaknesses of intention estimation failures, identified by application of a tentative theory of intelligence failure based on the sociology of the origins of disasters. A case study of the Yom Kippur War intelligence failure was analyzed with the disaster theory. This theory was shown to be related to the common problems of knowledge generation experienced by scientists. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA081486
Entities
People
- Frank J. Stech