Monte Carlo Population Defense Model: Initial Results.

Abstract

A methodology and computer program is documented that allows the introduction of estimates of uncertainty into the assessment of nuclear warfare casualties and of of the effectiveness of candidate civil defense programs. Estimates of uncertainty in input parameters of the model were made by expert panels. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate estimates of the mean and standard deviation of outcomes. The method is applied to two candidate programs, which are compared in terms of mean total and uninjured survivors, assured survivors at the 95-percent confidence level, uninjured to injured ratios, and cost per added survivor. An analysis of the contributing elements to the dominant program is presented. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1979
Accession Number
ADA081561

Entities

People

  • Frederic Miercort
  • John F. Devaney
  • Walmer E. Strope

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accidents
  • Casualties
  • Civil Defense
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Defense Systems
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Governments
  • Health Services
  • Medical Personnel
  • Nuclear Warfare Casualties
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Students
  • United States
  • War Colleges
  • Warning Systems

Readers

  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Statistical inference.
  • Trauma or Military Medicine