Modeling the Energy and Fuel Sectors in SOVMOD.
Abstract
This report describes the data base, modeling concepts, and equations of the new energy and fuel component being introducted into the SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric MOdel (Version III). The role that the Soviet Union may play in shaping the future world energy situation has recently attracted the attention of U.S. policy makers. In a series of reports issued by the Central Intelligence Agency during 1977, the possibility was raised that Soviet oil production would significantly slowdown during the 1980's, with a possible result being that the CMEA (USSR and Eastern Europe) might shift from its current position as a modest net exporter to a substantial net importer of oil by 1985. Much of the pessimism expressed by the CIA on the world energy situation in the 1980's is tied to this particular forecast. The CIA studies have received considerable comment, and other analyses have appeared. Although there remains much conflicting opinion as to possible Soviet responses, there does exist general agreement among Western analysts that Soviet oil production will not be capable of keeping up with growing demands of domestic users while at the same time supplying most of East European needs and expanding hard currency exports as planned. In fact, the majority of analysts agree that the Soviet oil industry is in trouble.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA082142
Entities
People
- Daniel L. Bond
Organizations
- SRI International