Escalation Space and Assumptions about Enemy Motivations: Elements in Warning Assessments.

Abstract

Strategic warning may be viewed as contingently predicting an imminent, significant escalation of a confrontation. Warning of an imminent Soviet strategic nuclear attack is one of a large set of possible escalations, although of unique consequence. Confrontations and conflict may be characterized as a series of escalations and de-escalations by one or both sides, involving some six factors that cover the participants, the locale, the degree of superpower involvements, the superpower declaratory policies, the types of weapons in use, and the targets of the military violence. By locating these variables on each of these ladders at every juncture in a confrontation, the warning analyst can identify the various steps open to the enemy.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA082462

Entities

People

  • William M. Jones

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Casualties
  • Combat Areas
  • Combat Forces
  • Detection
  • Middle East
  • Military Transfers
  • Motivation
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Security
  • Space Systems
  • Strategic Warning
  • United States
  • Unmanned Systems
  • Ussr
  • War
  • Warfare
  • Weapons

Readers

  • Nuclear Civil Defense.
  • Sensor Fusion and Tracking Systems.
  • Strategic Security Studies

Technology Areas

  • Space