A Methodology for Assessing Alternatives to Reduce Ship Collisions.
Abstract
This research analyzes the ship collision problem in and around United States ports and develops a methodology to allow cost effective assessment of alternatives to reduce ship collisions. By analytical and statistical means, a mathematical model is developed to predict ship collisions in ports and to evaluate the parameters for Pacific Coast ports. The Collision Prediction Model is based on ship factors, port factors and exposure criteria. The model provides for including the effectiveness of various collision reduction methods through the use of multiplicative factors. Examples of benefit cost analyses are presented based on Net Present Value, forecasts of the Collision Prediction Model and the effectiveness of various collision reduction methods. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methods to identify critical ranges for important parameters. The methods described provide decision makers with an analytical aid for making decisions. Collision trends and priorities for alleviating the ship collision problem can be established and resources allocated appropriately. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA083567
Entities
People
- Ronald Rhys Morgan
- Russell R. O'neill
Organizations
- University of California, Los Angeles