Forecasting Army Budget Commitments and Obligations.
Abstract
This study seeks to forecast the amount and timing of procurement obligations for the Army's customer program. The authors review budget execution policies and procedures and various approaches to economic forecasting, including regression based methods and Box-Jenkins forecasting (both univariate and transfer functions). Data are collected and analyzed. A Box-Jenkins analysis shows that the timing of orders does not drive the timing of obligations and that orders cannot be used to give time phased statistical forecasts. However, the amount of year end orders does influence the amount of year end obligations and the patterns are similar from year to year. These facts allow forecasts to be made. Organizational considerations seem to be influencing the process. Other findings, conclusions and recommendations are provided in the study. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1980
- Accession Number
- ADA085110
Entities
People
- Richard C. Brannon
- Uldis R. Poskus