Aggregating and Communicating Uncertainty.
Abstract
Strategic intelligence products contain a substantial element of uncertainty which must be communicated to the consumer if they are to be used effectively. As a social science, estimative intelligence uses methods which are largely global or intuitive in nature. Subjective probability assessments may be produced forthese methods, combined, tested for consistency, and communicated to the consumer using techniques described in this report. Two computer-based demonstration systems, the Calibration Assessment Package (CAP) and Subjective Probability Assessments (SPA), are described. General descriptions of several additional systems for data base management and probability assessment are also included.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1980
- Accession Number
- ADA086987
Entities
People
- John M. Morris
- Raymond J. D'amore