A First-Order Methodology for Calculating Probability of Mission Success
Abstract
A first-order methodology for calculating the probability that a system will successfully complete its mission was developed, illustrated, and validated. The methodology is directed to analysts, designers, managers, physicist, and planners who are unaccustomed to working with statistics and probability theory, but who are assumed to have had an introductory course in statistics and probability theory. The methodology, which makes use of closed- form solutions and is quite transparent, is designed to yield results quickly and without the use of a large computer. It is not intended to replace the formal, more accurate computerized methodologies that use Monte Carlo simulations or numerical partitioning. Within its specified applicable domain, the methodology yields quantitatively accurate results. The applicable domain is sufficiently large to encompass many problems of interest to the Defense Nuclear Agency community.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 31, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA088910
Entities
People
- Carl F. Bagge
- David Rothman