Pilot Automated Influence Diagram Decision Aid.
Abstract
Influence diagrams were originally conceived as a way of visually representing dependencies among random variables. It was recognized that they provide an effective means of communicating probabilistic information in complex, uncertain situations. They were soon generalized to include decision as well as chance variables. An earlier SRI report, Development of Automated Aids for Decision Analysis (Miller, et al., May 1976), describing influence diagrams and showed that they are a more fundamental way of capturing uncertain decision situations than the commonly used decision tree methods. This recognition held the promise that they might provide a basis for more efficient modeling and solution of decision problems. The report reviews the fundamentals of influence diagrams (adapted from Miller et al.) It illustrates with an example of toxic chemical testing how an analyst might use an automated influence diagram system. A first such system was implemented on the IBM 5110 mini-computer. This work allowed the development of computational algorithms in the APL language. Small decision problems are within the capabilities of this system. This development established the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive influence diagram system on a larger machine. Such a system could greatly assist decision makers and decision analysts. The final sections of this report explore questions which arose out of our work. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA092129
Entities
People
- James E. Matheson
- Robert J. Korsan