A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions.

Abstract

Accounting for the uncertainty in most decision problems requires the application of the knowledge of one or more experts. In decision analysis, a process of probability encoding is used to convert specialized or general knowledge into probability distributions to represent the judgement of these experts. This manual presents the probability encoding methods that have proved to be most effective in providing a precise language for communication about uncertainty. The interview process described herein has been found to be an efficient method for eliciting the uncertainty in a person's information. The manual details the careful interaction between the interviewer (decision analyst) and the subject whose judgment is encoded. The encoding process not only provides the user with an awareness of the many problems that may arise in an encoding situation, but also improves the subject's awareness of his state of information. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1978
Accession Number
ADA092259

Entities

People

  • Cari-axel S. Stael Von Holstein
  • James E. Matheson

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Business Administration
  • Cognition
  • Commerce
  • Delphi Method
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Literature Surveys
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Research
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Reasoning
  • Students
  • Systems Engineering
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Statistical inference.