Autoregressive Modeling of the Lower Stratospheric Winds and Temperature for an Equatorial Location

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to forecast monthly mean values of zonal and meridional wind components and temperature for 11 pressure levels from 100 to 10 mb for an equatorial location. Rawinsonde data for Kwajalein were used to compile 33 data series of monthly means for the three variables and the 11 pressure levels. Univariate autoregressive (AR) and multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) models were used to forecast monthly means of each variable at each pressure level for a 12-month period. In order to get a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of the AR and MVAR forecasts, root-mean-square-errors were calculated and compared with RMSEs computed for climatology 'forecasts'.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA092521

Entities

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  • Kird Edel Lehneis

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  • Air Force Institute of Technology

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  • Environmental science

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  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
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  • Space