Probabilistic Estimates with Limited Data.

Abstract

Decision makers require and need more than a point estimate of the cost and schedule for new or on-going programs. Much has been written about how to quantify program risks based upon historical data. However, estimates for new systems frequently depend upon expert opinion from a few knowledgeable persons because an applicable historical data base is not available. The method proposed in this report utilizes a PERT type network, beta distribution parameters for expert opinion inputs, and convolution of activity distributions by simulation. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA093969

Entities

People

  • Conrad W. Faber

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Central Processing Units
  • Composite Materials
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Defense Systems
  • Delphi Method
  • Management Personnel
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Program Management
  • Risk Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Operations Research
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design