Projecting the Future for Situation Assessment and Planning: A Cognitive Analysis.

Abstract

Situation assessment and planning rely heavily on the decisionmaker's ability to project future conditions in the environment and the impact of tentative planned actions on those conditions. This note presents a cognitive analysis of the future projection process. It identifies three projection strategies-retrieval from experience, formal analysis, and mental simulation--and characterizes their strengths and weaknesses. It also discusses the impact of three general cognitive factors--operation at different levels of abstraction, motivational factors, and attribution problems--on the future projection process. Based on this analysis, the note proposes a cognitive technology for developing and training effective future projection processes. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA094448

Entities

People

  • Barbara Hayes-roth

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Air Traffic
  • Air Traffic Control Systems
  • Air Traffic Controllers
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • California
  • Climate Change
  • Cognition
  • Cognitive Science
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • Psychology
  • Reasoning
  • Side Effects
  • Simulations
  • United States

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