Internal and External Crisis Early Warning and Monitoring.

Abstract

This report describes research on the Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS). The proliferation of quantitative computer-based systems for facilitating I&W (Indications and Warning) analysis has provided a significant impetus for EWAMS research. Extensive evidence from behavioral decision theory indicates that humans are susceptible to various cognitive-perceptual biases and fallacies and that a computer-based tracking and warning system can be of value to intelligence analysts. Basic and applied political, social, and computer science R&D has facilitated the process of designing, testing, and refining EWAMS on both the international and intranational level. Initial EWAMS research revolved around: testing of quantitative political indicators; development of general scans; and selection of a computer base for the system. A key objective of the recent political research program involved crisis warning. Discriminant analysis methodology was tested extensively and subsequently incorporated into the system.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA096168

Entities

People

  • Gerald W. Hopple

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Information Processing
  • Information Retrieval
  • Information Science
  • International Relations
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Political Science
  • Political Systems
  • Psychology
  • Public Policy
  • Sociopolitics
  • Warning Systems

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Critical Infrastructure Protection in CBRN and WMD Threats.