Scoring Rules and the Inevitability of Probability
Abstract
Let a person express his uncertainty about an event E, conditional upon an event F, by a number x and let him be given, as a result, a score which depends on x and the truth or falsity of E when F is true. It is shown that if the scores are additive for different events and if the person chooses admissible values only, then there exists a known transform of the values x to values which are probabilities. In particular, it follows that values x derived by significance tests, confidence intervals or by the rules of fuzzy logic are inadmissible. Only probability is a sensible description of uncertainty.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA097045
Entities
People
- Dennis V. Lindley
Organizations
- University of California, Berkeley