Accelerated Accuracy in the Simulation of Markov Chains.

Abstract

This paper describes a method of obtaining results from the simulation of a finite state positive recurrent aperiodic Markov chain at a cost considerably below the cost required to achieve the same accuracy with pure random sampling. By reorganizing k independent epochs or tours simulated serially into k replications simulated in parallel, one can induce selected joint distributions across replications that produce the cost-saving benefits. The joint distributions follow from the use of rotation sampling, a special case of the antithetic variate method. For a finite state nearest neighbor chain the paper shows that even for independent parallel replications the cost of achieving a specified accuracy with serial simulation relative to the cost for parallel simulation has a lower bound 0 sq. rt. of k as k approaches infinity. When rotation sampling is used this bound is 0(k squared/(1n k) cubed). This lower bound also holds for the more general finite state chains. A simulation of the M/M/1 queueing model with finite capacity n is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the technique for selected values of k, n and activity level rho. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA099287

Entities

People

  • George S. Fishman

Organizations

  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Absorption
  • Accuracy
  • Bernoulli Distribution
  • Binomials
  • Classification
  • Computational Complexity
  • Convergence
  • Estimators
  • Markov Chains
  • Normality
  • North Carolina
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Rotation
  • Sampling
  • Simulations

Readers

  • Parallel and Distributed Computing.
  • Statistical inference.