The Simulation Heuristic.

Abstract

The mental processes by which people construct scenarios, or examples, resemble the running of the simulation model. Mental simulation appears to be used to make predictions, assess probabilities and evaluate casual statements. A particular form of simulation, which concerns the mental undoing of certain events, plays an important role in the analysis of regret and close calls. Two rules of mental undoing are proposed. According to the downhill rule, people undo events by removing surprising or unexpected occurrences. According to the focus rule, people manipulate the entities on which they focus. The implications of the rules of undoing and mental simulation to the evaluation of scenarios are discussed. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 15, 1981
Accession Number
ADA099504

Entities

People

  • Amos Tversky
  • Daniel Kahneman

Organizations

  • Stanford University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Biological Sciences
  • Civil War
  • Engineering
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Information Science
  • Military Research
  • Naval Training
  • Navy
  • Political Systems
  • Psychology
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Students
  • Systems Engineering
  • Training

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Theoretical Analysis.