On the Study of Statistical Intuitions.

Abstract

The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analyses of judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 15, 1981
Accession Number
ADA099507

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  • Amos Tversky
  • Daniel Kahneman

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  • Stanford University

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