Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

Abstract

This report discusses the role of coherence considerations in the definition and measurement of subjective probability. A general version of De Finetti's coherence theorem--that either a set of betting probabilities obeys the laws of probability or else a sure win is possible for the better--is proved, using a variant of Farka's Lemma. This theorem provides the basis for several admissibility theorems for scoring-rule probabilities, under a generalization of scoring rules suggested by Lindley. Linear programming methods for identifying and reconciling incoherence are discussed, and a comparison is made with Bayesian reconciliation methods.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA099722

Entities

People

  • Robert F. Nau

Organizations

  • University of California, Berkeley

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computer Programming
  • Convex Sets
  • Data Science
  • Equations
  • Linear Programming
  • Mathematics
  • Models
  • New York
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Simplex Method
  • Statistical Inference
  • Theorems

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Statistical inference.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference