Forecasting Skill
Abstract
The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years; however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were reviewed to independently evaluate weather forecasting improvement. Overall forecasting skill improved for most weather elements; however, improvement was not obtained by all. This led to a review of other factors (education, experience, interest, and procedures) that might be important in determining forecasting skill. After basic education and experience have been achieved (2-3 months), the main factor contributing to forecasting skill was found to be forecaster motivation. The AWS emphasis on accurate weather forecasting apparently has been effective, and should be continued.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA099778
Entities
People
- Kenneth E. German