An (The?) Explanation of the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan.
Abstract
The sine qua non of an effective response to Soviet actions in Southwest Asia is an accurate definition of the situation there. Their invasion of Afghanistan in December of 1979 is the most recent -- and most visible -- manifestation of the threat those actions can pose. As such, it has been taken by many as the harbinger of things to come, and it obviously has had a major impact on American assessments of the problems that must be dealt with in that region and the steps that should be taken to cope with those problems. But is it that harbinger? Why did the Soviets invade Afghanistan? The following represents an attempt to answer both of those questions. The discussion begins with a brief description of the problems facing any analysis of Soviet intentions and the approach to their solution adopted here. Next, the context in which the actions under examination took place is sketched out. The discussion then turns to a review of the course of events in Afghanistan and the role apparently played by the Soviets there. Following this, the motivations judged most likely to have precipitated the invasion are outlined. The discussion concludes with a brief treatment of some of the implications of this conclusion. A listing and evaluation of other, less plausible explanations of the Soviet decision to invade are appended. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA100422
Entities
People
- Robert G. Weinland
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses