Meteorological Decision Assistance.
Abstract
Meteorologists have long been aware of the problem of providing meteorological information in a meaningful form for use by decisionmakers. Some decisionmakers will accept no meteorological advice while others insist on a 'yes' or 'no' determination regarding any question of the future state of the atmosphere, and a rare few will allow range meteorologists to present their forecasts in terms of probabilities. Obviously there will always be a degree of uncertainty in weather forecasts, therefore, it is imperative that decisionmakers be educated to accept weather forecasts which are provided to assist in the decision process in terms or probabilities. In actuality, most, if not all, inputs used in arriving at a decision are uncertain. If range meteorologists are forced to give 'yes' or 'no' meteorological inputs, then they are denied the option of expressing the degree of uncertainty. A single probability number may contain all the operator needs to know about the weather, its effects on a particular aspect of the mission objective, and the confidence of the meteorologists in his forecast given a particular situation (Lyon and Leblanc, 1976). If the probability forecast is used as an input into an operational decision model, the usefulness should be even more impressive. This document provides range meteorologists with an introduction to the basic concepts and operations of decisionmaking. It is not expected to make the reader an expert. Instead, the material will provide an awareness of the capabilities of operational decision models and typical situations where they should be used, and demonstrate to range customers the value of using meteorological forecasts in decisionmaking.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA103683