An Analysis of the Accuracy of Price Estimates for Foreign Military Sales Cases.

Abstract

This research examined the perception of foreign customers, and others familiar with FMS, that the U.S. price estimates of a case value are not very accurate when compared to the final price of the delivered material. The perception is that prices are under-estimated. The researchers compared original price estimates, from a sample of AFLC defined order cases, with their respective final delivered values to determine their accuracy. Results indicated that for defined order cases, the price estimates tend to exceed the final delivered value by more than 60 percent. The analysis stratified the sample and found that cases estimated at Ogden ALC and Ammunition cases tended to be overestimated. Results of other strata were indeterminable. A series of interviews with Foreign Liaison Officers and USAF personnel familiar with FMS were conducted in conjunction with the data collection. The interviews indicated that inaccurate price estimates cause problems but price estimates of within + or - 10 percent of the final value would be acceptable. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA105057

Entities

People

  • Karen A. Dus
  • Kenneth P. Knapp

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Air Force
  • Air Force Personnel
  • Data Analysis
  • Department Of Defense
  • Foreign Military Sales
  • Information Science
  • Law
  • Logistics
  • Management Personnel
  • Materials
  • Schools
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistical Tests
  • Statistics
  • Students
  • United States

Readers

  • Government Contracting/Procurement.
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Regression Analysis.