Value Tree Analysis of Energy Supply Alternatives.
Abstract
This study examined the use of value trees in multiattribute evaluations of energy supply alternatives. A value tree relating general values and concerns to specific value relevant attributes was constructed to compare three energy options: nuclear, coal, and a combined geothermal and conservation package. Thirty-seven subjects weighted the importance of the attributes in the tree using both hierarchical and non-hierarchical weighting procedures, and they rated the energy options on all attributes and all levels of the tree. From these importance weights and ratings several additive multiattribute models were constructed and compared with holistic rankings and ratings of the three options. The experiment had three basic findings: first, hierarchical weights were steeper (higher weight ratios) than non-hierarchical weights. Second, groups identified by their holistic first choice showed substantial agreement in their assessment of attribute weights. Attribute-wise ratings of energy options also agreed rather well across groups, although there was a tendency for each group to favor their holistic first choice. This convergence of MAU model parameters resulted in a 'common model' that was rather consistent with holistic evaluations of the pro-conservation group, and generally inconsistent with those of the pro-nuclear group. This third finding of differential consistency between model composites and holistic evaluations is interpreted as a result of weight parameter distortions due to social desirability and a neglect to consider attribute value ranges when making weight judgments. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA105629
Entities
People
- Detlof Von Winterfeldt
- Richard S. John
- William G. Stillwell