An Application of Subjective Probabilities to the Problem of Uncertainty in Cost Analysis

Abstract

All cost estimates are characterized by some uncertainty. A device helpful in communicating this uncertainty to the decision maker is a subjective probability distribution of the system cost. A technique--termed the Subjective Probability Estimation Technique (SPET)--is described and a computer program is presented to facilitate its use. This technique permits the analyst to represent his notions about cost uncertainty with the beta or other statistical distributions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA105780

Entities

People

  • Harley R. Jordan
  • Michael R. Klein

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Guided Missiles
  • Information Science
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Number Generators
  • Random Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Distributions
  • Statistics

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.