Preliminary Analysis of Technical Risk and Cost Uncertainty in Selected DARPA Programs

Abstract

This report documents the analytical results and conclusions of a four-month investigation of cost and uncertainty in selected DARPA programs. The analysis focuses on risk and the management of risk from a technical, cost, and schedule perspective through a comparison of DARPA experience to a large experience base of other federal programs. The results indicate that DARPA experience in the management of high technology programs can be interpreted (and to some degree of accuracy, forecasted) using this experience base. In addition, this analytical and empirical approach can be used to assist DARPA in complying with recent DOD directives to recognize risk in budgeting and planning estimates. Most importantly, the study effort demonstrates that it is possible to identify qualitative indicators to characterize risk and to use such descriptors as the basis for risk management.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 06, 1981
Accession Number
ADA107402

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Control Systems
  • Cost Estimates
  • Cost Overruns
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Elements
  • Guided Projectiles
  • Materials Processing
  • Military Acquisition
  • Program Management
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test Facilities

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management