Development of a Dynamic Model to Evaluate the Effect of Natural Resource Policies on Recovery Following Nuclear Attack. Volume 1. Description and Simulations
Abstract
A dynamic computer simulation model has been developed, which explicitly represents the production, import, and 4istribution of key groups of natural resources and the effects of many resource-related government policies. This model is a tool for assessing the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to various degrees and types of damage to its natural resource sectors. It can be used to analyze the impacts of resource availability, and of U.S. Government natural resource policies, on the process of post-nuclear-attack economic recovery. The model may be characterized as a dynamic, input-output simulation of the natural resources portion of the U.S. economy. The natural resources portion of the economy is represented as four distinct sectors: (a) metallic durable materials; (b) non-metallic durable materials; (c) energy products; and (d) non-fuel consumable materials. The results of attack scenario and policy tests indicate that recovery following a nuclear attack requires reestablishing and maintaining dynamic balance among the interdependent sectors of the economy. Under a wide range of attack scenarios, the natural resource sectors will be sources of dangerous imbalances, and will constrain recovery of the overall U.S. economy. Civil Defense policies can reduce these imbalances and thus merit serious consideration. This work is an extension to, and enhancement of, the dynamic modeling effort under Contract No. DCPA 01-78-C-0302.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA107625
Entities
People
- David W. Peterson
- Henry B. Weil
- William S. Silverman