A Verification Study of the Improved Regional Rapid Analog System (IRRAS)

Abstract

An analog system designed to make midrange regionalized forecasts is described. The analog system uses a unique historical data base which has been formulated to reduce data handling while speeding up analog matching procedures. Tuning and verification of the system are carried out for the Greater Mediterranean region. Verification results indicate that this analog system does not perform significantly better than either persistence type forecasting or forecasts produced by the current operational FNOC (Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center) analog. Possible causes for these results are discussed. Included as an appendix is a discussion of an analog-matching technique which, using the same unique historical data base, is designed to estimate the current meteorological conditions for any possible silent data area. An experiment is described which tests the adequacy of this data base to produce matching analogs for a region covering the western U.S.S.R. Results indicate that there will have to be a substantial improvement in the historical data base if acceptable analogs are to be found.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA107647

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  • L. Robin Brody

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