Forecasting Intense Tropical Cyclones Using 700-mb Equivalent Potential Temperature and Central Sea-Level Pressure
Abstract
Sikora (1976), et al., suggests that the equivalent potential temperature at 700 mb in a developing tropical cyclone is an excellent parameter to measure the total thermodynamic energy of the tropical cyclone at a particular time. He further suggests that abnormally high values of equivalent potential temperature (> or = 370 K) can herald a period of subsequent explosive deepening. This note expands on that idea to propose a technique for forecasting the development of intense tropical cyclones (minimum sea-level pressure <925 mb) based on the relationship of the total thermodynamic field, as measured by the tropical cyclone's central 700-mb equivalent potential temperature, and the kinematic field, as measured by the tropical cyclone's central sea-level pressure. One hundred seven tropical cyclones which occurred in the north Western Pacific and north Central Pacific Ocean were evaluated using 700-mb temperature, 700-mb dewpoint and sea-level pressure data which were available from past Annual Typhoon Reports (1975-1980). These data were used to develop a forecast technique whereby the tropical cyclone forecaster may anticipate significant development in a tropical cyclone by monitoring the central sea- level pressure and 700-mb equivalent potential temperature provided by aircraft reconnaissance. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA109335
Entities
People
- George M. Dunnavan