The Third World Arms Market in the 1980's: Implications for U. S. Policy.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the demand and supply sides of the Third World arms market. The relationship between arms imports and six economic variables is studied, with emphasis on the use of economic variables to forecast arms demand. Arms imports are found to be systematically related to economic variables in a number of the countries studied. Arms demand is significantly correlated with GNP in thirty of the forty countries. Based upon this correlation, forecasts of arms demand are made using estimates of future GNP levels. These estimates show that Africa and the Middle East will be the largest arms demanding regions in the next decade. On the supply side, U.S. market share and the share of major supplying nations to the Third World are analyzed. During the period 1965 to 1978, U.S. share is found to have declined significantly, particularly in Africa and Latin America. Soviet and European shares have increased in most regions. Market share trends combined with demand projections indicate that U.S. policy toward Africa and Latin America will be of importance in the future.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 02, 1981
Accession Number
ADA109992

Entities

People

  • Eugene Braiden Rex

Organizations

  • United States Naval Academy

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

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  • Congress
  • Databases
  • Department Of State
  • Economics
  • Foreign Aid
  • Foreign Relations
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  • Latin America
  • Law
  • Middle East
  • National Security
  • Political Systems
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • United States Naval Academy

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union