The Characterization of Strictly Proper Scoring Rules in Decision Making.

Abstract

A strictly proper scoring rule or admissible probability measurement procedure (APMP)is a mathematical device that allows a decision-maker to 'score' probabilistic forecasts made by experts once the outcome is known. The expected score, as seen by the forecaster, should be maximized when the forecaster states his true beliefs so that he will be encouraged to do so. Applications to subjective probability assessment will be given. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA110209

Entities

People

  • Eduardo Haim

Organizations

  • University of California, Berkeley

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  • Human Systems

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  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • California
  • Construction
  • Convex Sets
  • Decision Theory
  • Delphi Method
  • Mathematics
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Scientific Research
  • Theorems
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • Weather Forecasting

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  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Statistical inference.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.